In 2023, Constitutional Carry (permitless) was restored to 26 states. Vermont always had Constitutional Carry. Those states make up 65% of the land area of the United States of America. According to John Lott, those 27 states contain 44% of the population of the United States. When will a majority of the people in the United States enjoy permitless carry, as well as a majority of the states?
It is highly likely Louisiana will join the Constitutional Carry Club in early 2024. Louisiana’s inclusion will increase the percentage of the land area with constitutional carry from 65.3% to over two-thirds, with 66.7% of the land area. Louisiana increased the percentage of the population to 45.4 percent. The estimated population in 2023 is about 340 million people. 4.6% of 340 million is 15.6 million people. There are several states that are candidates for Constitutional Carry, which could be combined to place the population of people in states where a permit is not required for over 50% of the population of the USA.
One of the most likely of those states is Pennsylvania. Pennsylvania passed Constitutional Carry, with significant margins in its legislature, in 2021. Anti-Second Amendment Governor Tom Wolf vetoed Senate Bill 565. A Republican governor in Pennsylvania and a Republican legislature would very likely pass a Constitutional Carry bill. Pennsylvania has a population of about 12.96 million people in 2023. Pennsylvania would put the United States very close to a majority of the population living in permitless carry states. There have been significant voting irregularities in Pennsylvania and Philadelphia. It is difficult to prosecute people for election fraud when one political party controls all the levers of power in a city or state.
The most likely candidate states for passing Constitutional Carry, besides Louisiana and Pennsylvania, are North Carolina, with a population of 10.9 million; South Carolina, with a population of 5.35 million; Michigan, with a population of 10.04 million; Wisconsin, with a population of 5.91 million; and Nevada, with a population of 2.89 million.
Assuming Louisiana passes Constitutional Carry (permitless) in the next few months, Pennsylvania and any of the other states mentioned above would place a majority of the population of the USA in permitless carry jurisdictions. Similarly, North Carolina and any of South Carolina, Michigan, or Wisconsin would do the same. Michigan and Wisconsin would also work. Other than those combinations, three states would be required.
If the Constitution and a representative republic can be kept over the next decade or two, most of the states will either have Constitutional Carry or clear and objective shall issue permit systems. An issue that will likely come before the courts is whether the states have the power to prevent people from other states from bearing arms in the territory controlled by the state.
Massachusetts has already had a court case where the judge said they cannot prosecute someone from another state if they can legally carry in their home state.
The United States of America may reach a point where a few highly restrictive states, such as New York and California, will restrict their own citizens more than they are able to restrict the citizens of relatively free states such as Montana, Missouri, Oklahoma, Mississippi, and New Hampshire. New York and California are working hard to defy the Supreme Court and keep their laws as restrictive as they allowed by their voting populations and the federal courts.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
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