There has been speculation about the effect of wind on the trajectory of the bullets fired at Presidential Candidate, former President Donald Trump. According to media reports, the would-be assassin fired from a position North of Donald Trump, about 130 meters away.
Measurement on Google Maps puts the distance at about 441 feet, 147 yards, or 134 meters. This is close to the BBC estimate of 130 meters for the shot. The direction of the shot was from North to South, at about 20 degrees East of North toward 20 degrees West of South. Meridian Rd, on the right side of the image, runs North/South.
Fortunately, there is a weather station in Butler, less than five miles away, almost due East. Station KPABUTLE38 recorded wind direction and speed on July 13, 2024. The assassination attempt happened about 6:12 P.M. Here are the wind speeds and directions recorded five miles away during that period:
The winds were mostly light and variable. Consider the directions shown for the winds from 5:59 P.M. to 6:29 P.M. The varied considerably from SE, WSW, South, North, SSW, SW, and WSW. WNW or ESE would be the closest cardinal directions to be direct crosswinds to the line of fire. Because the wind was so variable, it is possible there was a direct cross wind, but the odds favor a wind about 45 degrees or less to the line of fire. Gusts were recorded of up to 8.9 mph.
A direct crosswind of 5 mph would result in a standard 5.56 round being moved by the wind about 1.15 inches cross to the line of fire at 150 yards.
An examination of flags flying near the Butler Farm venue, taken from a video time-stamped at the event, might give us a more accurate picture of the direction of the wind when the shot was fired. It seems unlikely wind was a strong contributor to the would-be assassin missing the shots taken.
With wind as variable as it was that day, a wind effect can not be ruled out. It is possible a gust of wind from the WNW at about 9 mph could have occurred at the moment of the shot. Such a gust would have moved the bullet 2.06 inches to the left of the person firing the shot or to the right of Donald Trump. That could have been the difference between a wound to the ear or death for the former president and presidential candidate.
Combine a possible wind effect with the turning of Donald Trump’s head and the inherent variation in ammunition and rifles, and the would-be assassin could have held dead on and still only scored an ear for their efforts if the variables combined to move the bullet to the right of Donald Trump as his head moved to the left. It is well known in the hunting fields that game can move just as a shot is fired, resulting in a missed shot.
Variable wind, such as occurred on the day of the attempted assassination, can make precise shots difficult for expert shooters. On such a small scale, trees and buildings create eddies in the wind, further complicating the picture. When the wind can come from many directions, judging windage is mostly an educated guess.
About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
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