An embarrassing bombshell report at RealClear Investigations that the FBI had “quietly revised” its violent crime data for 2022 upward—after Democrats and the Biden-Harris administration bragged about the initially reported decline—has ignited a media fireworks show.
The report, written by researcher and author Dr. John Lott, founder and president at the Crime Prevention Research Center, revealed that faulty FBI data which originally said violent crime in 2022 had dropped 2.1 percent, had been updated to show crime had actually gone up by 4.5 percent. The revelation raised eyebrows across the establishment media because it essentially exonerated former President Donald Trump, who had been skewered by ABC debate moderator David Muir during the debate between Trump and Kamala Harris, when Trump insisted emphatically crime had gone up.
As noted by Lott in his 1,450-word report, the erroneous data became a “Democrat Party talking point to counter Donald Trump’s claims of soaring crime.” So far, Democrats do not appear to have apologized, but they have also been quiet about the report.
But the media has not been so silent. Lott’s report even made for a monologue by Fox News comedian/host Greg Gutfeld.
Writing at the Kansas City Star, journalist David Mastio observed, “When bad news is false, agency press people go out of their way to make it crystal clear that reports are definitely not true. When bad news is true, agency press people spew a wall of fog and bury you under an avalanche of distractions or in this case, contradictions. Judging from the ridiculous answer the FBI sent me, the right-wing media reports are true.”
The National Review’s Jim Geraghty—writing about Mastio’s opinion piece—was blunt: “The new data includes thousands more murders, rapes, robberies, and aggravated assaults.”
According to Lott’s analysis, “The actual changes in crimes are extensive. The updated data for 2022 report that there were 80,029 more violent crimes than in 2021. There were an additional 1,699 murders, 7,780 rapes, 33,459 robberies, and 37,091 aggravated assaults. The question naturally arises: should the FBI’s 2023 numbers be believed?”
It’s embarrassing to the FBI, but it is worse for the administration and Democrats, who suddenly have to swallow their bluster about how their policies have lowered crime in the United States. Instead, it suggests their policies, from gun control on down the ladder, haven’t worked after all. Expect them to change the subject.
The reported “quiet” revisions also signal that the FBI’s new system of collecting data—the National Incident-Based Reporting System (NIBRS)—is obviously in trouble. As explained by the New York Post, “NIBRS contains much more detailed crime information than SRS, but law enforcement reporting rates have dropped as municipalities seemingly struggled with the transition. According to one analysis, the FBI is missing data from about a fifth of key local agencies, while the rate of reporting dipped below 70% in 2021 for the first time in at least two decades.”
Lott’s revelations could be devastating to any Biden legacy, especially when he observes:
“While the FBI claims that serious violent crime has fallen by 5.8% since Biden took office, the NCVS numbers show that total violent crime has risen by 55.4%. Rapes are up by 42%, robbery by 63%, and aggravated assault by 55% during Biden’s term. Since the NCVS (National Crime Victimization Survey) started, the largest previous increase over three years was 27% in 2006, so the increase under Biden was slightly more than twice as large.”
As observed by Mastio in Kansas City, “That shatters a key talking point put forward by the Harris campaign and raises obvious questions about whether the decrease in crime the FBI reported for 2023 is in need of revising as well.”
Lott’s report also takes a swipe at the media. He refers to a Gallup survey in late 2023 which revealed that “92% of Republicans and 58% of Democrats thought crime was increasing. A February Rasmussen Reports survey found that, by a 4.7-to-1 margin, likely voters say violent crime in the U.S. is getting worse (61%), not better (13%). A Gallup poll found in March that ‘crime and violence’ was Americans’ second biggest concern, after inflation. But the media and politicians used the inaccurate FBI data to try to convince people that they were wrong.”
What happens now? The FBI has lost credibility, and the media and politicians who are now silent because they’ve been proven wrong for having called Trump and others wrong also must rebuild their trustworthiness.
This may not be so easy, considering a new Rasmussen survey which revealed that half (50%) of U.S. voters “believe most news media organizations are biased in favor of Democrats in terms of their political coverage, compared to just 28% who see the media as biased in favor of Republicans.
“Eighteen percent (18%) think most of the media are pretty much objective and neutral in their political coverage,” Rasmussen reported.
The veteran polling firm report continued, “Forty-nine percent (49%) agree that the media are ‘truly the enemy of the people,’ as Trump said in 2019, including 29% who Strongly Agree. Forty percent (40%) disagree, including 26% who Strongly Disagree, while another 11% are not sure. In March, 60% agreed that the media are “truly the enemy of the people.”
Lott’s revelations may not rise to the level of an “October surprise” three weeks before the national elections, but with early voting in progress, it will give voters a reason to wonder if the FBI, the administration, and the media were so wrong about violent crime, what else have they been wrong about for the past 3 ½ years?
About Dave Workman
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