Opinion by Phillip Journey
USA – -(AmmoLand.com)- At the time of this writing, it is about 70 days until the election. The alternate paths we may be on beginning November 4th, 2020, the day after the election, are starkly different. If the conventional wisdom proves out firearm’s rights supporters will be in the fight of their lives.
We all know the array of threats we are facing. The frontal assault by NY Attorney General James to have a court order the dissolution of NRA. Democrats are no longer gun-shy. The platform of the Democratic Party is Sarah Brady’s dream come true. They are emboldened by perceived movement in public opinion in support of the concepts they propose. Democrats have successfully exiled any conservatives of their party to the ash heap of history with victories in their primaries. They saw the success they had last year in some special elections and flipping the red state of Virginia blue. They believe the lessons of 1994 are no longer applicable. In 1993, President Bill Clinton’s pollster predicted that no Democrat in Congress would lose because of their support of the semi-auto ban. It passed by 1 vote.
Let’s look at the best political prognostication websites that compile their own work and the work of others. They have a decent track record. My favorite, www.realclearpolitics.com The most comprehensive accumulation I know of. They compile polling producing averages encompassing effectively huge sample sizes. The one I refer to but am the least familiar with, www.270towin.com There are others like Politico and Cook’s Political Report but some access to them requires a subscription.
While our individual Congressional races in the House are important, no one sees a realistic possibility that the Republicans will regain a majority. Nevertheless, we can pray and hope.
The Presidency: 4 years ago sounded a lot like it does now. While the bases of each party are solid as granite, we will see the race tighten as we approach Election Day. Biden is the oldest person ever to run for his 1st term. In recent polling ½, the Democrats did not think Biden would live through his 1st term. The debates are yet to come and the Republican convention is not over. The realclearpolitics (RCP) website show Biden has the advantage in electoral votes, but he has yet to lock in 270 votes.
If gun owners play their cards right and Democrats take a misstep or two, we could have a pleasant surprise just like 4 years ago.
The US Senate: maybe the last best line of defense before our rights become subject to the predilections of 5 on the Supreme Court.
The Republicans have a slim majority in the Senate now. They are in a tough spot and have to defend twice as many seats as the Democrats. If the D’s have a net gain of 4, Sen. Charles Schumer will be, Majority Leader and they will hold all the committee chairs controlling the agenda. House Bills will squirt through the Senate and on to the president’s desk.
The States in play are across the country. The five that have been recognized for some time are Iowa, N. Carolina, Colorado, Maine, and Arizona. Others that have moved to toss-up vary between websites. There has been significant movement in our favor. At this point, there are now 5 more senate races that are in the toss-up column. Montana, Minnesota, Michigan, S. Carolina, and the Perdue race in Georgia. For the first time this cycle two Democrat, incumbents are vulnerable. They are Sen. Tina Smith of Minnesota and Sen. Gary Peters of Michigan. Eight Republican seats are vulnerable. Remember, if the Dem’s have a net gain of three the Vice-President casts the deciding vote.
So what is a gunny to do? The choices are clear. Sit on your butt, complain to your friends try to figure out where to bury things, or get out of your recliner and make a difference.
If enough of us choose, the latter there very well could be a great wailing and gnashing of teeth on November 4th of 2020. I will never forget being outside Trump Tower in NYC two days after the 2016 election seeing the city dwellers crying as they walked down the street and being in the audience of the Daily Show. I was laughing more than Trevor was. If the forces of the anti-gun right are not forced to relearn the lessons of 1994 there may be little more than damage control to do besides getting ready for 2022.
Campaigns have just three resources time, money, and volunteers. Time is finite, if you do not seize the day it is a lost opportunity. Remember voters are casting ballots earlier than ever and mail-in ballots are up. Way up! In the Kansas Senate primary, they were up 600% from 2 years ago. With early voting, the later the activity risks effort made will be with people who have already voted. The Time To Act is NOW!
Money: I know we do not have our own Michael Bloomberg. We must decide what we are willing to donate and then where to put our resources. Pick one or more of those Senate races. All major candidates have websites and donating is as easy as PayPal. Campaigns have plans and media buys must be made days or weeks in advance, so again Now is the Time. If you are an NRA member, in your magazine was a special envelope for the NRA-PVF. The Federal Election Commission rules and Federal law regulate the donations to the NRA Political Victory Fund. Only NRA members may donate to the fund. Donations to the fund can only be spent on direct campaign donations or political activity like the orange postcards.
I know the concerns expressed by so many members about NRA finances and spending. I want you to know that those direct donations to NRA-PVF if re-directed to other needs is violating the law.
Time: right now campaigns have much on their plates. Find a race where you can help a pro-gun rights candidate. Volunteer work like stuffing envelopes and making phone calls can be done remotely; you may not have to leave your recliner. If you have friends or family in those states with hot Senate races, learn a little about those races first then call them and help them make the right choice. If you do go to the candidate’s headquarters or event wear your NRA, GOA, or whatever hat so they know who you represent.
GOTV, Get Out The Vote
Finally, this is where most close races are won or lost. Making sure your supporters vote is the most critical part of the campaign. This is where your time volunteering will have the greatest impact. The campaigns if they have done their job already know who supports them. They should have canvassed properly identifying likely supporters, helping people get to the polls on Election Day and other GOTV activities could be the floodwall stopping the Blue Tsunami we see on the horizon.
Phillip Journey was NRA’s political activist of the year in 1993. He helped write NRA’s 1st grassroots manual has worked in over 100 campaigns at the local and state level. Phil served in the Kansas Senate and is now running for re-election to his 4th term as Judge in the largest city in his State and faces a general election opponent. He was recently elected to the NRA Board and will be sworn in after the Tucson meeting.
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