“The Court granted two AR-15 cases instead of one so no legislature can moot its way out of a ruling — and from here, several things will tell us whether this becomes the emphatic Heller vindication the law demands.” — Professor Mark W. Smith, Four Boxes Diner Host
The Supreme Court has granted certiorari in Viramontes v. Cook County, Illinois, No. 25-238, out of the Seventh Circuit, and consolidated it with Grant v. Higgins, No. 25-566, out of the Second Circuit, for one hour of argument. Between them, these cases will decide whether Cook County’s ordinance and Connecticut’s statute banning AR-15s and related semi-automatic rifles can survive the Second Amendment. I have already written about why the Court took two cases instead of one. This piece is the roadmap: the key things to track as these cases move toward argument and decision.
Will Anyone Try to Moot This Out?
The first question is whether Cook County or Connecticut tries what New York did in 2020. In New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. City of New York, 590 U.S. 336 (2020), not to be confused with NYRSPA v. Bruen, the New York City and New York state rewrote the challenged transport rule the moment cert was granted, and the Supreme Court dismissed the case as moot. Justice Kavanaugh, concurring in the per curiam, agreed the case was moot but warned:
“And I share Justice Alito’s concern that some federal and state courts may not be properly applying Heller and McDonald. The Court should address that issue soon, perhaps in one of the several Second Amendment cases with petitions for certiorari now pending before the Court.”
Roughly two years later, the Court decided New York State Rifle & Pistol Association v. Bruen, 597 U.S. 1 (2022). Kavanaugh’s prediction was vindicated. But mootness will not work this time. No legislature is going to legalize AR-15s to escape a ruling it dislikes, and the Viramontes complaint pleaded nominal damages — a claim that survives repeal of the ordinance itself. In short, the escape hatch that closed New York’s case is not available here.
Where Does the Trump Justice Department Stand?
The second question is whether Solicitor General D. John Sauer files an amicus brief in support of the Second Amendment, and on what theory. There is no federal statute analogous to either ban, so the federal government has no institutional client to protect and no reason not to side with the Second Amendment claimants. I expect an amicus brief, and I expect Sauer or Principal Deputy Solicitor General Sarah Harris to seek argument time. This administration’s civil-rights posture — Harmeet Dhillon at the Civil Rights Division, and Barry Arrington now the acting head of the Department’s Second Amendment section — has been substantively strong.
The one caution I would flag is United States v. Hemani, 608 U.S. ___ (2026), where the Solicitor General sought certiorari on a poor fact pattern and lost 9-0 in an opinion by Justice Gorsuch, with 2A attorney Erin Murphy arguing the winning side. That was bad strategy that happened to end well for Team 2A. It should not be repeated here, and I see no structural reason it would be.
Whose Amicus Brief Gets Read Most Carefully?
Every brief filed with the Supreme Court gets read, but the Justices read certain ones more carefully — those filed by counsel they know. I expect Paul Clement and Erin Murphy of Clement & Murphy PLLC to file an amicus, and their brief will carry weight regardless of their ultimate client here.
Beyond that, expect three genres of legal briefs:
- methodology briefs discussing Heller’s role against Bruen’s;
- social-science briefs noting that handguns, which cannot be banned under Heller, account for the overwhelming majority of firearm homicides while long guns of all types account for a small fraction;
- and history briefs invoking the historical weapons such as the Brown Bess musket, the Kentucky long rifle, and Founding-era fowling pieces to show that long guns, including rifles, were the Founding era’s most common form of arm.
When Will We Hear Argument, and When Will We Get a Decision?
Based on my own count of this term’s merits docket, Viramontes and Grant sit at roughly twenty-second and twenty-third in the sequence of grants for October Term 2026. Chief Justice Roberts’s practice has been to schedule about nine arguments per monthly sitting. On that trajectory, my projection is that argument falls in the first week of December. A decision, given the argument date and the stakes, should not arrive before the final week of June 2027.
Heller, Bruen, and the Brice of Unanimity
Both cert petitions cite my Harvard Journal of Law & Public Policy article, What Part of “In Common Use” Don’t You Understand?: How Courts Have Defied Heller in Arms-Ban Cases—Again, for the proposition that arms-ban cases are governed by Heller’s common-use standard, not a freestanding historical inquiry under Bruen. The anti-gun movement’s real objective is to relitigate that methodology, because it cannot carry the historical burden on suppressors, magazines, or AR-15s under Heller as written. Justice Kagan, writing for a unanimous Court in Smith & Wesson Brands, Inc. v. Estados Unidos Mexicanos, 605 U.S. 280 (2025), described the AR-15 as “widely legal and bought by many ordinary consumers.” Justice Sotomayor, dissenting in Garland v. Cargill, 602 U.S. ___ (2024), called such rifles “commonly available, semiautomatic rifles.” My read is that the more liberal Justices already accept the factual premise.
My concern is a different one: a 9-0 result bringing all three of the Court’s liberal Justices into the majority might be purchased at the price of softening the Heller-Bruen methodology or adding unhelpful dicta to the Court’s opinion to secure their votes. A 6-3 decision that keeps that methodology intact would serve the Second Amendment better in every case that follows. Of course, the history of the future has yet to be written so who knows what will happen.
Finally, one sober note belongs here.
The Court’s composition between now and June 2027 is not guaranteed, as Justice Ruth Bader Ginsburg’s death in 2020 and Senator Lindsey Graham’s recent passing both remind us. That reality does not change the analysis above, but it is worth keeping in view. After all, it is Supreme Court lore that the Justice Alito concurrence in Caetano v. Mass. in 2016, which found that stun guns fall under the Second Amendment’s text, was originally destined to be the Court’s majority opinion—until Justice Scalia passed away earlier that year.
About Mark W Smith
Constitutional attorney and bestselling author Mark W. Smith hosts the Four Boxes Diner Second Amendment channel on Youtube and Rumble; is a member of the U.S. Supreme Court Bar; and his Second Amendment scholarship has been cited by many attorneys and judges, including by attorneys in legal briefs submitted to the U.S. Supreme Court. Professor Smith’s most recent book is ISRAEL DISARMED: What the October 7 Attack Teaches Americans about the Right to Bear Arms and he has lectured at Harvard Law School, Yale Law School, Princeton University, the Wharton School at U. Penn, and Oxford University. He is a frequent speaker at the Federalist Society’s Annual National Lawyers Convention in Washington, D.C.

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