Opinion
The National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) adjusted figures for January 2026 show a slight decrease in the number of checks compared to 2025. From the National Shooting Sports Foundation:
“The January 2026 NSSF-adjusted National Instant Criminal Background Check System (NICS) figure of 1,198,879 is a decrease of 0.7 percent compared to the January 2025 NSSF-adjusted NICS figure of 1,207,557. For comparison, the unadjusted January 2026 FBI NICS figure of 2,172,185 reflects a 5.6 percent decrease from the unadjusted FBI NICS figure of 2,299,989 in January 2025.”
As noted by the NSSF, the unadjusted NICS numbers, which include checks for various gun permits and re-checks for the same, are down 5.6%. This is likely a reflection of the increasing “permitless” or Constitutional Carry states.
On a positive note, the NSSF’s report on NFA items saw a massive increase compared to 2025. From the NSSF:
“The January 2026 NFA figure of 206,871 is an increase of 121.2 percent compared to the January 2025 figure of 93,518.”
Other than a slight jump up in 2006 – 2008, the rise in firearm sales reflected in the adjusted NICS figures corresponds to both the Heller decision in 2008 and the election of Barack Obama as President in late 2008. The prominent spikes in sales occurred just after the re-election of President Obama in 2013, the run-up to the election of President Donald Trump in 2016, and the aftermath of the 2020 election during the first year of the Biden administration.
By comparison, the years of the George W. Bush presidency, the first Trump term, the last three years of the Biden Administration, and the first year of the second Trump term have been relatively flat. The jump from 2005 to 2025 has been enormous. 2000 – 2005 sales look flat and similar to 2022 – 2026. When adjusted for population increase, estimated gun sales per capita have increased in January.
The US population 2000-2005 averaged about 287 million, with adjusted NICS about 535,000 for those first-of-the-year months. From 2022 to 2026, the population averaged about 337 million, with adjusted NICS about 1.20 million for those Januarys.
Several factors are in play. Foremost are the enormous changes in the political structure since 2008. President Obama, elected to bring closure to racial division in the United States, did the opposite, exacerbating and escalating racial strife to levels not seen since the 1960s. Obama’s policies created a weak USA, the elevation of Iran, a weak NATO, and advanced the climate hoax for the benefit of China. The reaction to these destructive policies was President Donald Trump. President Joe Biden was President Obama’s third term. It was disastrous. President Trump, in his Second term, is presiding over a counter-revolution to the “fundamental change” President Obama forced on the nation.
Both the Republican and the Democratic parties have been unwilling to take the heat to step away from the crippling and suicidal debt inflicted on the USA. The only solution appears to be extraordinary growth. President Trump has been promoting this potential avenue to survival.
Part of the growth is a tremendous increase in productivity in the United States. It is one of the reasons for the rise in firearm sales. Excellent, practical firearms are historically cheap in the United States, when considered in constant dollars. The primary reason is that the cost of making them has decreased due to advances in technology. This correspondent grew up with the Savage 99. It is an excellent deer rifle. So are the Winchester 94 and the Marlin 336. They are wonderful examples of the gun-maker’s art at the end of the 19th century and the beginning of the smokeless powder, non-corrosive primer era.
The requirements to produce those rifles are not well-suited to the more efficient technologies of the 21st century. A new rifle in these models costs over $1200. A new semi-auto based on the AR15 platform performs as well, with better accuracy, for 1/3 to 1/2 the cost. Good centerfire defensive handguns are available new for less than the constant-dollar cost of a surplus 1911A1 in 1960. A new, semi-auto .22 rimfire can be had for less than a quarter of the constant dollar cost of a semi-auto .22 in 1960. Despite rising prices, choking government regulation, and a recent dip in sales, NICS checks remain higher than the plateau of the early 2000s.
At the moment, sales appear to be leveling off. There may be some market saturation. Handguns have become more popular than rifles or shotguns.
Serious innovation might be rewarded in the future, but it is a gamble. Rising prosperity may bring more sales. Rising security may inhibit sales. The Trump Department of Justice has declared the USPS ban on mailing handguns unconstitutional. How this may affect sales is unclear.
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About Dean Weingarten:
Dean Weingarten has been a peace officer, a military officer, was on the University of Wisconsin Pistol Team for four years, and was first certified to teach firearms safety in 1973. He taught the Arizona concealed carry course for fifteen years until the goal of Constitutional Carry was attained. He has degrees in meteorology and mining engineering, and retired from the Department of Defense after a 30 year career in Army Research, Development, Testing, and Evaluation.
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